Marco Rubio Beats Kamala Harris by 5 Points: Poll Strengthens His Position Against Vance for 2028

An Emerson College poll shows the secretary of state performing better than the vice president against four of five potential Democratic candidates.

Marco Rubio leads Kamala Harris by five points in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup, 48% to 43%.

• Why it matters: Harris defeats JD Vance 49%-45% in the same poll, a difference that puts Rubio in a stronger position against her.

Marco Rubio Changes the Outcome Against Kamala Harris

The difference between the two Republicans is especially notable when respondents are asked to choose between them and the former Democratic presidential candidate, according to the Emerson College survey cited by the New York Post.

While Rubio receives 48% to Harris’ 43%, Vance gets 45% compared with 49% for the former vice president.

That represents a nine-point swing in the margin between the two hypothetical matchups.

• By the numbers: Rubio leads Harris by five points, while Vance trails the Democrat by four points.

The poll also tests both Republicans against Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Rubio wins 48%-43%, while Vance holds a narrower 46%-44% advantage.

Marco Rubio 2028 Numbers Outperform Vance Against Four Democrats

The secretary of state performs better than Vance against four of the five Democrats included in the poll.

However, that does not mean Rubio wins four of the matchups. He defeats only Harris and Ocasio-Cortez.

Pete Buttigieg leads Rubio 49%-44%, while Jon Ossoff is ahead 47%-44%. Gavin Newsom also leads Rubio, 48%-46%.

• The difference: Rubio performs better than Vance against Harris, Ocasio-Cortez, Newsom and Ossoff. Against Buttigieg, both Republicans receive 44%.

The results therefore show a relative advantage for Marco Rubio 2028 prospects over Vance, while also pointing to potential Republican challenges against other Democratic contenders.

🇺🇸‼️ | Secretary of State Marco Rubio beat Democrat Kamala Harris 48% to 43% in a hypothetical 2028 presidential election scenario. According to data from the Emerson College Polling survey cited by Newsmax, Rubio leads… pic.twitter.com/85UcnYwH4D

— UHN Plus (@UHN_Plus) August 20, 2026

Poll Offers an Early “Snapshot” of the 2028 Race

Emerson College Polling conducted the survey among 1,000 likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of approximately three percentage points.

The matchups are hypothetical scenarios and do not mean that Rubio, Vance or any of the Democrats included will ultimately become a presidential nominee.

• The limitation: The 2028 election is still more than two years away, and potential candidacies have yet to be determined.

For now, the numbers provide an early indication surrounding a question that could become increasingly important among Republicans: which figure would be more competitive against the eventual Democratic nominee.