Texas 2026 Elections: Candidates, Polls and Five Key Races to Watch
Senate, governor’s race, and three southern districts are under scrutiny as polls show significant differences between the general electorate and Hispanic…
The Senate, governor’s race, and three South Texas districts are under scrutiny as election polls show significant differences between the broader electorate and Hispanic voters.
Texas will vote on November 3, with five contests drawing particular attention: the Senate, governor’s race, and congressional districts TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34.
- Why it matters: The elections will determine state offices and part of the Texas delegation in a House of Representatives where every seat can affect the partisan balance.
Talarico and Paxton Face Close Texas Senate Race
Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton, the current attorney general, in a race where recent Texas election polls show relatively narrow differences.
Emerson College/Nexstar registered 47% for Talarico and 46% for Paxton among 1,000 likely voters surveyed from September 12 to 14. ReconMR found 49%-43% among 614 likely voters.
- The contrast: Among Hispanic voters, Cook Political Report/TelevisaUnivision found 63% for Talarico and 30% for Paxton.
The economy occupies a significant part of the debate. Talarico proposes, among other measures, universal childcare, medical debt relief, and assistance for homebuyers.
Paxton proposes tax deductions related to housing, healthcare, and families.
Abbott and Hinojosa Show Another Competitive Race
Republican Governor Greg Abbott is seeking another term against Democratic state representative Gina Hinojosa.
Texas election polls do not point in the same direction: Emerson/Nexstar registered 49%-46% for Abbott, while ReconMR found 49%-45% for Hinojosa.
- Among Hispanics: The Cook/TelevisaUnivision survey placed Hinojosa at 60% and Abbott at 33%.
Hinojosa has focused part of her campaign on public schools, teacher salaries, and access to healthcare. Abbott enters the election defending his record as governor and Republican policies.
TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34 Put South Texas in the Spotlight
Three districts with large Hispanic populations offer another window into the electoral behavior of South Texas in the 2026 elections.
In TX-15, Republican Monica De La Cruz faces Democrat Bobby Pulido. In TX-28, Democrat Henry Cuellar faces Republican Tano Tijerina; in TX-34, Vicente Gonzalez competes against Eric Flores.
- The fact: Among 414 likely Hispanic voters from TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34, Democrats received 53% and Republicans 39% on the generic congressional ballot. The margin of error was ±4.8 points.
Economy and Immigration Weigh on Hispanic Voters Before November Elections
The Cook/TelevisaUnivision survey, conducted from August 26 to September 3 among 1,000 likely Hispanic voters, found that the economy ranked above immigration and ICE among their electoral concerns.
Another set of results shows that reducing healthcare costs and lowering taxes for workers are among the economic priorities measured.
- What’s next: Polls measure preferences at specific moments and within their margins of error; they do not determine the outcome of the November 3 election.
Until then, attention will remain on whether the differences recorded among Hispanic voters persist and how the five contests develop.
The question will remain open until the votes are counted: How significant will the Hispanic vote be in the Texas elections?
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SOURCE: Texas Tribune / Cook Political